管理层语调能预示公司未来业绩吗?——基于我国上市公司年度业绩说明会的文本分析

本文基于我国上市公司年度业绩说明会的文本数据来研究公司管理层语调是否有助于预测公司未来业绩。我们基于上市公司2005-2012年在全景网召开年度业绩说明会的相关文本数据研究发现,管理层净正面语调与公司T+1年业绩显著正相关,以及管理层正(负)面语调与公司T+1年业绩显著正(负)相关。这些结果说明,在控制了T年公司业绩等因素之后,业绩说明会上的管理层语调仍能够提供关于公司未来业绩的增量信息,也从事后验证的角度表明管理层语调具有较好的可信度。本文的研究发现意味着,管理层披露的文本信息有信息含量且有一定可信度,这对在中国高度依赖语境的文化背景下加强研究了解投资者等是如何挖掘和解读文本信息有重要意义。同时,也说明我国上市公司业绩说明会利用先进信息技术的信息披露实践在一定程度上是有效的。     

Small businesses as a research subject: Some reflections on knowledge of small businesses and its effects on economic theory

Most economists agree in their view of small and medium-sized enterprises, or small businesses (SMEs), as a marginal scientific subject. They may go so far as to ignore them, either because they think these economic units do not lend themselves to conventional economic studies — studies which, for instance, take into account the sacred cow theory of economies of scale — or because they see them as being not really different from big businesses.However, at least a few economists have recognized, first, the many characteristics differentiating SMEs from big firms, and second, their increasing importance in terms of numbers and job creation within economies. Among these few, Schumpeter was one of the first to show the importance of entrepreneurs and SMEs as the main variable of change in an economy. Simon and Lucas also explained the difference between small and big firms through the differing abilities required by managers to run them. Penrose looked at the question from another point of view by highlighting the interstices taken up by SMEs to fulfil needs that cannot be fulfilled by bigger units. Critics of the theory of economies of scale showed that such economies may be offset by a number of diseconomies, thus justifying the efficiency of many SMEs. More recently, Mills and Schumann suggested that SMEs compensate for their lack of economies of scale by their production flexibility, particularly in today's turbulent economy.The limits of traditional economic theory are clearly demonstrated by the fact that it does not take account of all these theories, concepts and ideas. It thus neglects a number of important economic phenomena, including the persistence and current expansion of SMEs. Consideration of such phenomena may lead to the development of a new economic theory based on the concepts of instability and contingency, together with the behaviour of entrepreneurs and small firms, thus tending to contradict, in particular, the concept of equilibrium in conventional economic theory.A first version of this paper has been presented as invited speaker at the symposium of TETRA Group at Lyon, France, 30–31 May 1990. I thank the colleagues Fritz Rieger, Frances Solé Parrellada, Jacques Filion and the two referees for their very interesting suggestions on a preliminary second version.     

The impact of individual and managerial factors on salespeople's contribution to marketing intelligence activities

Although salespersons represent a unique and important channel of information, few of them contribute efficiently to marketing intelligence. This research aims to understand how salespeople's motivation and effort to gather and transmit marketing intelligence to management may be influenced by individual (organizational commitment, desire for upward mobility) and managerial (control system, participation in decision making, feedback, recognition) factors. The test of the proposed model shows that desire for upward mobility is the only individual determinant of behavior. Other than participation in decision making, all the managerial factors play influential roles in structuring both motivation and behavioral effort toward marketing intelligence by salespeople. The authors also discuss the limits of the model, some managerial implications, and future research opportunities.     

国际投资协定透明度要求变化及其启示 ——以美国实践为考察对象

以美国BIT为代表的国际投资协定在透明度条款以及其他条款涉及透明度的规定中通过加强公众参与程度显著提升了透明度要求。这一变化是投资仲裁实践、国内贸易立法以及市民社会诉求合力作用的结果。透明度要求的提高一方面凸显了专业性社会组织对国际投资立法与实践的影响,另一方面则反映了美国借此维护本国利益的实质。对此,中国在对外投资协定的签署与实践中需要审慎对待透明度要求,同时加强本国专业性社会组织的培育和发展。     

A never-decisive and anonymous criterion for optimal growth models

We address in this paper the question of the existence of a Social Welfare Function that would be sustainable and would allow us to obtain solutions to optimal growth models. We define sustainability by two new axioms called Never-decisiveness of the present and Never-decisiveness of the future. We first show that a SWF which has Never-decisiveness properties cannot be defined on a ball of $l_{\infty }^{+}$ . We must (i) restrict to the set of utility streams for which the value of the SWF is finite and (ii) introduce additional assumptions in order to obtain the Never-decisiveness properties. Our main result in this paper is therefore to show that the undiscounted utilitarian criterion is an anonymous and never-decisive criterion for optimal growth models. We consider the set of utilities of consumptions which are generated by a specific technology, namely a technology with decreasing returns for high levels of capital, and restrict ourselves to good programs, i.e., any program for which intertemporal utility is well defined.     

城市内涝治理系统设计要点及案例分析

城市内涝治理是一项系统性工程,在对内涝治理特征进行剖析的基础上,提出了达到治理目标的"三步法",并从源头减排、排水管渠及泵站、河湖水系、应急除险、信息化等方面总结了设计要点,从规划建设、运行维护、应急抢险等方面阐述了管理措施,介绍了几个典型城市的相关案例,为城市内涝治理提供参考和借鉴.     

西方社会土地产权的构成、演化与启示

西方社会将土地产权分为权能和客体两方面,并进行科学精准地界定、重组,以实现土地产权在政府管理层面与个人使用层面的均衡分配。人工不透水层作为承载社会经济发展用地类型的覆被类型,随着西方社会生态保护意识的增强而处于规划和管制当中,具体反映在土地产权主体占有地块内的建筑密度、容积率等控制指标。而土地用途分类和土地覆被分类作为土地产权的实体化反映,则构成以经济价值为维度的土地发展权的尺度性特征,实现了政府宏观管理与个体微观利用的兼容性。对我国土地产权管理的建议：土地管理应由强调土地所有制向构建土地利用管制制度转变;科学界定土地产权,转变政府职能,推动我国土地管理向民生化、微观化、精准化方向发展。     

环境规制强度与国际产业转移实证研究——以广西北部湾经济区为例

采用1993～2010年的年度数据,运用非线性Granger因果检验对广西北部湾经济区环境规制强度和国际产业转移进行实证研究,结果显示,环境规制强度与国际产业转移不存在非线性Granger因果关系,即在一定程度上加大环境管制力度,不会影响广西北部湾经济区对发达国家的产业承接,反而在促进区域经济发展的同时,使环境得到改善。     

Preservation and exogenous uncertain future preferences

Summary. We extend the Beltratti, Chichilnisky and Heal's (1993) and (1998) continuous-time stochastic dynamic framework to analyze the optimal depletion of an asset whose consumption is irreversible, in the face of uncertainty about future preferences. Their model is rather general and so the results are general qualitative theorems. We show that in some interesting cases it is possible to solve their model analytically. The cases involve constant elasticity utility functions and the assumption of a Poisson process for the evolution of preferences. Received: September 13, 1999; revised version: November 23, 1999